The goal of the 10 Minute Scouting Report in basketball is to uncover team and player-level strengths and weaknesses to better train, prepare and play. Pivot Analysis's 10 Minute Scouting Report uses lineup analysis and four factors metrics to help coaches, players and viewers understand the how and why behind a team's successes and failures.
Let's see what the report could provide the Oregon Ducks in preparation for their final four matchup against the Baylor Lady Bears.
At the team-level, the goals are to identify offensive and defensive scoring efficiencies, four factors strengths and weaknesses, and shot distribution. With those in mind, we can then monitor expected individual player production and usage rates. Finally, now that we have identified the players that drive impact, we can check which individuals have the greatest impact on the team's production as a whole (positively and negatively) and identify the root causes for those impacts.
Step 1: Analyze overall team strengths and weaknesses
By comparing Four Factors, Pace, and Points Per Possession, Oregon can identify Baylor's strengths and weaknesses and identify opportunities to out-perform their opponent. From the report comparison below, one can gather the following:
Baylor's strengths over Oregon:
Faster pace
Better defense
More efficient rebounds
Oregon's strengths over Baylor:
Better offense
More efficient shot profile
Step 2: Review Individual Player Statistics
By reviewing the per game and rate statistics, Oregon can quickly identify likely minute splits, production, and efficiency. Key takeaways for game planning include identifying players that Oregon wants to force to handle or shoot the ball; for example, high turnover % players (Didi Richards) and high usage / low PPS players (Chloe Jackson, Queen Egbo).
Step 3: Find vulnerabilities in the rotation
Reviewing the season-long single player OnOff metrics can reveal rotational strengths and weaknesses. In the case of Baylor, the exploitable rotations are when Chloe Jackson or Lauren Cox are on the bench. Baylor is particularly affected on the defensive end, with the team performing 8 and 10 points worse per 100 possessions.
Step 4: Review details of vulnerabilities
Using the Lineup Explorer, one can easily identify how Baylor is impacted when Lauren Cox and Chloe Jackson are on the bench.
These weaknesses can be identified by comparing the each player's OnOff splits, particularly on the defensive end. In this Chloe Jackson and Lauren Cox have similar impact areas. Both tends to have a large impact on opponent EFG% and opponent FTR. In other words, Baylor fouls less when these players are on the floor and force opponents to take harder shots.
Takeaways in Conclusion
This basketball scouting report shows that Baylor is an elite, defensive-minded team, with few clear weaknesses other than shooting and allowing a questionable shot profile. Exploitations on the individual side include a few high usage / low PPS players and high turnover % options. Finally, Baylor's most vulnerable moments are when Lauren Cox and/or Chloe Jackson sit, as these are Baylor's most important and impactful defenders, allowing an opportunity for getting better shots and more free throws at those moments during the game.
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